Martin Beck, Chief Economist | Economic Consulting and Analysis

The UK economy grew by just 0.1% in Q4 2025, reflecting ongoing consumer caution and falling business investment. With rising energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty, the near-term outlook is grim, with the potential for stagnation or negative growth in 2026.

Martin Beck, Chief Economist | Economic Consulting and Analysis

UK inflation held steady at 3% in February, with core inflation rising slightly to 3.2%. A sharp rise in energy prices, driven by Middle East tensions, is likely to push inflation up. Despite this, tighter monetary policy and a softer labour market suggest inflationary pressures will likely be transitory this time, with lower growth and higher unemployment bearing the burden.

Daniel Wild, Associate Director and Will Gardner, Junior Consultant | Public Affairs and Corporate Communications

Labour’s £1 billion youth employment package shows intent, but does it treat symptoms rather than causes? Grants may help some employers hire, yet higher business costs still threaten the retail and hospitality jobs many young people historically rely on. Without joined-up policy, the NEETs crisis risks adding to the burden of student loans and a challenging housing market, fuelling disillusionment amongst young people.

Martin Beck, Chief Economist | Economic Consulting and Analysis

The labour market steadied somewhat at the start of 2026, but remains weak beneath the surface, especially for younger and entry-level workers. But a fresh energy price shock now threatens to hit demand and employment, limiting the scope for the Bank of England to cut rates.

Martin Beck, Chief Economist | Economic Consulting and Analysis

UK GDP flatlined in January, undershooting expectations and highlighting weak momentum at the start of 2026. With geopolitical tensions pushing up energy prices, whether growth recovers may depend more on global events than domestic conditions.

Vincenzo Rampulla, Director | Public Affairs and Corporate Communications

After the Gorton and Denton by-election, a panel convened by WPI Strategy argued that while Keir Starmer is safe for now, his position remains fragile amid widespread frustration with mainstream politics. Labour may struggle to win back Reform voters, while those drifting to the Greens could prove decisive. The party faces a deeper identity challenge: clarifying who it stands for and articulating a more compelling offer on the cost of living and economic fairness.

Martin Beck, Chief Economist | Economic Consulting and Analysis

The Spring Statement delivered restraint, not surprises, with stability prioritised over short-term politics.
Growth was downgraded slightly, but the medium-term fiscal outlook remains broadly intact. Yet rising geopolitical and inflation risks mean economic stability is conditional and fragile.

Tom Wilson, Associate Director | Public Affairs and Corporate Communications

The Greens’ by-election win in Gorton and Denton, pushing Labour into third place, is a serious blow to Keir Starmer and deepens divisions within the party. Labour now faces mounting pressure from the Greens in urban seats and Reform UK in working-class areas, reigniting internal conflict over its future direction.

Martin Beck, Chief Economist | Economic Consulting and Analysis

The Spring Statement on 3 March is set to be deliberately “boring”, and that may be its strength. With borrowing undershooting forecasts and inflation easing, the public finances have a slightly firmer footing, even if headroom remains tight.

The likely message is that stability and restraint, rather than fresh fiscal activism, offer the most credible route to growth, provided attention isn’t diverted from long-term supply-side reform.

Martin Beck, Chief Economist | Economic Consulting and Analysis

The UK economy showed signs of improvement at the start of 2026, despite ongoing challenges in the labour market. While payroll employment continues to decline, retail sales have been robust, the public finances are improving and inflation is heading down.

Daniel Wild, Associate Director | Public Affairs and Corporate Communications

Following the announcement of Reform UK’s first ‘Shadow Cabinet’, Daniel Wild breaks down how Robert Jenrick’s Chancellor role targets external communication and how his appointment may impact internal policymaking

Martin Beck, Chief Economist | Economic Consulting and Analysis

Inflation cooled sharply in January, with CPI falling to 3% and core inflation hitting the lowest in over four years. While services inflation remains sticky, easing pay growth and weaker economic momentum strengthen the case for further interest rate cuts. On current trends, inflation could fall below target by spring, increasing the likelihood of monetary easing in the months ahead.

Martin Beck, Chief Economist | Economic Consulting and Analysis

Payroll employment fell for the fifth straight month in January and unemployment edged up, with younger workers hit hardest, but the pace of deterioration may be easing. Pay growth is cooling, strengthening the case for a rate cut, but higher hiring costs remain a structural headwind for job creation.

Vincenzo Rampulla, Director | Public Affairs and Corporate Communications

With sweeping proposals from social media curfews to AI bans, Ministers have revealed plans to tighten children’s online safety following consultation periods.

Tom Belger, Senior Advisor | Public Affairs and Corporate Communications

With Morgan McSweeney gone and Labour terrified of rebellions, MPs and the cabinet have cemented themselves in McSweeney’s place as the real  power behind the throne.

Martin Beck, Chief Economist | Economic Consulting and Analysis

The UK ended 2025 with quarterly growth stuck at just 0.1%, as subdued consumer spending and a sharp fall in business investment left the economy lacking momentum. However, falling inflation, improving business surveys and the prospect of further rate cuts suggest 2026 could prove somewhat stronger than the current consensus.

Martin Beck, Chief Economist | Economic Consulting and Analysis

A narrow 5–4 vote to hold rates in the Bank of England’s latest decision points to fading inflation risks and growing concern about weaker growth, setting the stage for a likely cut as soon as next month and a more supportive backdrop for UK demand and investment.

Martin Beck, Chief Economist | Economic Consulting and Analysis

This week’s data painted a familiar but consequential picture of the UK economy. The labour market is weakening, with falling payrolls and slower wage growth. December’s rise in CPI inflation looks like a temporary blip, consumer spending picked up modestly over Christmas, while the public finances saw an unexpected improvement. Taken together, the case for lower interest rates has strengthened, even if the Bank of England (BoE) is probably not quite ready to move yet.

Martin Beck, Chief Economist | Economic Consulting and Analysis

December’s rise in UK inflation to 3.4% was driven largely by temporary factors and inflation remains likely to return to the Bank of England's 2% target by mid-2026. For households and businesses, this suggests stabilising costs and further interest rate cuts in 2026, supporting growth.

Martin Beck, Chief Economist | Economic Consulting and Analysis

Proposed US tariffs on UK goods would hit a relatively small share of the UK economy. However, the impact could be significant for exposed manufacturing sectors, with wider risks from retaliation, weaker business confidence and disrupted global trade. If sustained, US tariffs could reduce UK GDP by around 0.5% by the end of the decade and increase pressure on the public finances.