End-of-term results

By Alex Black, Senior Consultant

Not a normal summer recess
Late July would normally see Westminster entering ‘end of term’ mode and the media indulging in ‘silly season’ as news dries up.  However, this year all eyes are on the three by-elections which took place just as the House of Commons starts recess, and which will define the SW1 narratives until Parliament returns in September.

At first glance, there seems to be something for everyone in the results: Labour and the Lib Dem press offices can celebrate their respective wins in Yorkshire and Somerset, while the Conservatives can welcome a hold in Uxbridge.

But the numbers tell a different story, and while each seat has its own local confounding factors, these results do provide interesting comparative data points against the national polls.

The Westminster lobby and spinners will focus on the ‘swing’ in each seat, a simple formula which neatly describes the difference in vote share since last time. However, a swing is essentially a proportionate calculation of the change in positive votes: it cannot capture those who voted last time who did not turn up yesterday - nor the generally lower turnout common to all by-elections .

Constituency results
In Somerton and Frome it was a classic Lib Dem by-election strategy, with a well-executed set-piece operation.  The previous MP was caught in a drugs scandal in April 2022, and the Lib Dems selected their candidate Sarah Dyke in May 2022, allowing over a year of preparation.  Liberal HQ threw the kitchen sink at the campaign in the final weeks, with activists bussed in from across the country, saturating local homes with enough literature and canvassers to get their message across and win the seat.  They added almost 4,200 votes, but notably, the result saw Labour’s result decline by over 7,000, and the Tories by 26,000.  Using totals is difficult due to lower general turnout at by-elections, but there is clearly an apathy among both Conservative and Labour voters in the seat, and it was the Lib Dems’ to win. That Labour dropped from third place to fifth, implies significant tactical voting among progressives. However, the real test of the swing will be at the fuller turnout General Election next year, as well as how the Boundary Review changes impact local tactical calculations, and how far Sarah Dyke can deliver for local residents in the time available.

In Selby and Ainsty, Labour overturned a huge majority, in the second biggest ever swing from Conservative to Labour in a post-war parliamentary election. Their candidate, Keir Mather, may possibly lose the seat again at a General Election, but has lined himself up well for future contests with such a notable victory.  A major doorstep issue - even highlighted by Keir Starmer on Sunday - was the increasing unaffordability of mortgages, so it seems that yesterday’s news that mortgage rates were finally dropping came too late for the Conservatives. In a seat with an older, home-owning population this is hugely significant.  Labour’s vote increased by over 2,500 and the Liberals decreased by over 3,600 - dropping them from third place to fifth - implying further progressive tactical voting.

In Uxbridge and South Ruislip - the one Conservative hold, albeit narrowly and on a recount - the race perhaps ended up being the most local and least representative of national trend. A major local factor was the imposition of a driving restriction ‘ULEZ’ by Labour London Mayor, Sadiq Khan. This turned out to be such a motivator that even the Labour candidate had switched partway through the campaign to express his opposition, along with Keir Starmer also dodging the question earlier this month. Uxbridge was defined by a very local issue, and the election seems to have hinged on turnout, with the Conservatives mustering just 495 more than their Labour challengers. It will be a Labour target at next year’s General Election, which may be more defined by national rather than local issues.


Takeaways
By-elections are an imperfect measure to divine national implications from what were often very localised campaigns. Next year, the Conservatives are banking on a slight structural advantage relative to previous elections, with next year’s new electoral boundaries. 
However, there are three useful lessons from yesterday’s tests:

1) Conservative morale
Conservative apathy has been evident for some months now, with several Tory MPs indicating that they will stand down at the end of the Parliament (there has been a similar trend north of the border among the SNP). This morale issue shows up in yesterday’s results, with many ‘missing’ 2019 Conservative voters who simply didn’t turn out to vote, even beyond the general turnout dip that can be expected in a by-election. Whether the Tories can re-engage these former supporters in a General Election campaign remains to be seen.

2) Anti-Tory protest votes and tactical voting
Where the national polls appear to be wrong is in overestimating support for right-wing insurgents such as Reform. It is notable that in Somerset and Yorkshire, they were the fourth placed candidate behind the Greens (displacing Labour and Liberals respectively to fifth). In both cases they got a little over 3% - less than half of the c7% implied by national poll-of-polls trackers. By-elections usually boost such protest votes, and historical precedents suggest that they will decline at a General Election.

While Conservatives may be safer on their right flank than polls imply, there is significant evidence of anti-Tory tactical voting to their left. This should be a major concern if their opponents agree formal or informal non-aggression pacts next year.

3) Energy sovereignty vs climate policies
Another notable takeaway is confirmation that environmental goals - while popular in the abstract national sense - falter when subject to local voting and the necessary personal tradeoffs are spelled out.

This has been implicit since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine caused energy bills to skyrocket, and was further recognised in the machinery-of-government restructure earlier this year: Net Zero took a back seat to Energy Security as the new energy ministry was retitled.

Businesses engaged on energy transition and driving environmental targets should adjust their framing accordingly, while being mindful that Labour has set green economic growth as one of their defining missions.


Next: Reshuffles and engagement
With the immediate electoral tests now behind them, the main parties will now take stock and engage in internal management over the summer period. Both Sunak and Starmer are expected to undertake reshuffles over the summer, so that their refreshed teams can get across their new briefs ahead of party conferences in autumn.

For Labour, the threat of an impending reshuffle of the Shadow Cabinet has been useful for Starmer in recent days, as the party has expressed restlessness at his announcement that Labour does not seek to remove the two-child benefit cap. Colleagues who would otherwise have channeled wider frustration have kept quiet as they have an eye on their prospects. There is some speculation that the changes may begin in the coming weeks - sooner than anticipated. Labour has also had other internal policy processes keeping them busy, with the National Policy Forum meeting this weekend to put its final policy recommendations to the Leader - so expect some infighting over the coming days.

For Conservatives, the Government reshuffle is also due imminently. Defence Secretary, Ben Wallace has made clear he is standing down, and there is speculation over his replacement. Other ministers seen by Sunak to be underperforming are likewise under pressure. The by-election results will define various political narratives, and a Cabinet reshuffle will provide a convenient inflection point to influence these.

This summer looks to be one where public affairs professionals will need to update their engagement targets and spinners will tell their preferred stories from yesterday’s results.