A report by WPI projects that social housing is expected to see a shortfall of 830,000 homes over the next decade, posing a challenge for the next Government.

An ex-government economists forecasts a 1.2 million homes deficit arising over the next decade, at least 80% of which represents need for subsidised affordable and social housing, including over 830,000 social homes.

The analysis authored by a former government economist - Paul Chamberlain - for CASE, a group of housing association providers. The report assesses levels of housing delivery over the next decade, based on predicted market and economic conditions, and the policy and funding outlook. A copy of the report is available here.

Key findings from the research include:

· Social housing shortfall: A 1.2 million homes deficit arising over the next decade, at least 80% of which represents need for subsidised affordable and social housing, including over 830,000 social homes.

· Government costs: The cost of meeting just the 830,000 social housing element would be around £46.5bn, based on typical arrangements where government grant funds only a third of the cost of delivery, with housing providers meeting the rest. The figure thus does not include any subsidy for other tenures such as affordable rent or shared ownership.

· Rising homelessness: The report argues that unless there is a radical change of policy and funding towards more social and affordable delivery, which no party has yet set out, the 1.2m deficit is a conservative estimate of the consequences, which will lead to rising homelessness and other housing problems.

· South East hit hardest: Breaking the numbers down regionally shows the deficits will be especially acute in the South East region, where affordability is the greatest challenge: an under-supply of up to a quarter of a million homes is likely in that one region alone.

The report recommendations include the immediate restoration of targets on local authorities for housing delivery which add new sub-targets for social tenures to steer the market towards that delivery.

It also calls for a step-change in policy and funding for housebuilding, including adequate funding to cover increasing regulatory costs imposed on builders by the present government.

Previous research for WPI found private housebuilding is set to collapse to levels not seen since the financial crisis, an outcome caused by Government policies to remove local targets and increase regulatory costs on homebuilders.